NOTE: This post focuses on web application development. All references, comparisons and predictions as they relate to software development technology / languages are strictly expressed in regard to web application development (not general purpose software development).
Job demand levels are generally a good indicator for how popular one technology stack is compared to others. The following is a quick analysis of web application technology demand trends for the past five years (Jan 2005 – Jan 2010). The data is based on millions of job postings/openings aggregated and tracked by indeed.com.
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Web Application Development Technologies/Platforms
I’ve selected Python, PHP, JAVA, J2EE, .NET, C#, ASP, Ruby, Perl, and ColdFusion. This should provide a good representation of all major web application development technologies. Some of these categories are broader than others and may contain subcategories e.g. J2EE is JAVA, and C# is part of .NET, etc.
UPDATE (10/4/2011): Though the post below only covers the trend & predictions based on the data from January 2005 through January 2010, all the graphs below are dynamically updated to reflect the most recent trend data.
Demand Trends in Absolute Terms
First, let’s look over the volume of job postings as an absolute percentage of all job openings.
Not surprisingly, .NET and JAVA are the most sought after general software development technology stacks. .NET currently represents about 3.5% of all job openings, while JAVA is around 3% of all job openings. These numbers are inflated by non-web application development jobs. The respective percentages that represent web application development done using both platforms should be significantly lower e.g. I wouldn’t be surprised if less than 40% of total JAVA and .NET development were web application development related, while the rest would fall into the client/server/other categories.
Assuming that 40% of all JAVA and .NET development is web-related, the demand levels for web-application work across all considered development technologies / platforms are actually much closer than what’s presented in the graph.
Demand Trends in Relative Terms
Next, let’s review the same trend as a relative percentage.
The demand for Ruby has increased 1,500% over the last 5 years. However, the absolute job opening volume for Ruby still only represents 0.3% of all job openings. The demand of Python has grown 450% in the last 5 years and currently represents 0.5% of all job openings. While the demand for PHP has grown 250% in the same period and currently represents 0.75% of all job openings. All other web application development technologies have experienced less than 100% growth over the last 5 years.
Open-Source vs. Closed-Source Predictions
While closed-sourced platforms such as .NET are making attempts to appeal to a broader spectrum of developers and are starting to provide flexibility typically only seen in the open source languages and platforms (see the “Dynamic Programming” portion of my C# 4.0 post from last year), open source acceptance at the enterprise level is still on the rise and is unlikely to stop growing despite the efforts by Microsoft and other web application development technology providers in the closed-source space.
As per data above, the demand levels for the open source web application development technology and platforms are growing significantly faster than their closed-source counterparts. Given the current growth rates, it is likely that there will be more web application development jobs in the open source space than in the closed-source space over the next 5-10 years.
PHP Predictions
PHP’s low barrier of entry and it’s open source nature, increased acceptance in the enterprise space (yes, Fortune 500 companies are using PHP) and proven scalability (think Facebook / 400M users) make a strong business case for the CIOs when it comes to web application development.
The demand and amount of web application development work done in PHP is likely to eclipse the demand and the amount of web application development work done in .NET and JAVA by 2015-2020. I’m not disputing that many enterprises are going to continue to use .NET and JAVA for web development. Given their existing investments in those technologies, they’ll most likely continue to use the same technology. However, many start-ups and growing SMBs as well as some large enterprises are increasingly selecting PHP over .NET and JAVA for web application development. I’m expecting this trend to continue at an accelerated rate.
Tags: .NET, C#, J2EE, JAVA, Open Source, Perl, PHP, Python, Ruby
May 18, 2010 at 8:30 PM |
Great post. Thanks for the research. We see a big demand for .NET and some for PHP development, especially from smaller companies. C# accounts for a majority of the work done.
November 23, 2010 at 3:05 PM |
amazing piece of information
August 24, 2011 at 3:05 AM |
THIS POST IS VERY HELPFULL
September 5, 2011 at 11:43 AM |
Nice article.
I prefer PHP for developing web applications.It is very simple and efficient